The Founder of Probabilty Theory?

I want to understand what makes the world tick. Einstein said he wanted to know what was on God's mind when he made the world. I don't think he was a religious man, but I know what he means.Lenny Susskind

Pierre de Fermat IPA: [pjɛːʁ dəfɛʁ'ma] (August 17, 1601 – January 12, 1665)

With Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat became the founders of the theory of probability.

A Short History of Probability

"A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a French nobleman with an interest in gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws. A seemingly well-established gambling rule led de Méré to believe that betting on a double six in 24 throws would be profitable, but his own calculations indicated just the opposite.

MESSENGER Reveals Mercury’s Geological History

Stefan of Backreaction posted a blog entry called,"Mercury looks like the Moon, nearly... that brought me up to speed on what the planet actually looks like.

His article provides for the links here in this entry, as well sets the stage for the culminating vision I have of our solar system. Looking at the solar system in the processes I outline are important point of seeing the gravitational aspects of the universe as we have come to know it.

I had never considered what the actual surface of Mercury would look like, other then what I had thought it to be, when told as a child. A molten surface.

Using the laser altimeter, MESSENGER will verify the presence of a liquid outer core in Mercury by measuring the planet's libration. Libration is the slow 88-day wobble of the planet around its rotational axis.

Seeing Mercury the way it is below provides for some thought about Mercury facing toward the Sun. It's surface looking at the picture below, I was wondering if facing directly in opposition to the Sun would showing brighter spots as we look to the right of this image.

This also raised an interesting question on my mind about how the uniformity of the surface could retain it's moon like look while undergoing the passage of "increased heat" as it faced the sun at anyone time through it's rotation.

Question 4 : What is the structure of Mercury's core?


Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie Institution of Washington

More recently, Earth-based radar observations of Mercury have also determined that at least a portion of the large metal core is still liquid to this day! Having at least a partially molten core means that a very small but detectable variation in the spin-rate of Mercury has a larger amplitude because of decoupling between the solid mantle and liquid core. Knowing that the core has not completely solidified, even as Mercury has cooled over billions of years since its formation, places important constraints on the thermal history, evolution, and core composition of the planet.

Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Carnegie Institution of Washington

This MESSENGER image was taken from a distance of about 18,000 kilometers (11,000 miles) from the surface of Mercury, at 20:03 UTC, about 58 minutes after the closest approach point of the flyby. The region shown is about 500 kilometers (300 miles) across, and craters as small as 1 kilometer (0.6 mile) can be seen in this image.

The Gravity Field



Clementine color ratio composite image of Aristarchus Crater on the Moon. This 42 km diameter crater is located on the corner of the Aristarchus plateau, at 24 N, 47 W. Ejecta from the plateau is visible as the blue material at the upper left (northwest), while material excavated from the Oceanus Procellarum area is the reddish color to the lower right (southeast). The colors in this image can be used to ascertain compositional properties of the materials making up the deep strata of these two regions. (Clementine, USGS slide 11)

This is always of interest to be because it is an accumulation of the synthesis of views we gain as we come to understand not only the views of on the Window of the universe, as we look at the Sun under information obtain in the neutrino laboratory's and information modelling of how we can now look at the sun with this new view.

But the truth is, the Earth's topography is highly variable with mountains, valleys, plains, and deep ocean trenches. As a consequence of this variable topography, the density of Earth's surface varies. These fluctuations in density cause slight variations in the gravity field, which, remarkably, GRACE can detect from space.

Well, by adding the label of Grace and Grace satellite systems, it is important to me that not only is gravity considered in context of the exploration of space in terms of Lagrangian, but of viewing how we map the earth and the views we obtain of that new gravity model of earth. This application then becomes of interest as we understand how we see the gravity model of Mercury and how the geological structure of Mercury will be reflected in that gravity model.

The Culminating Vision

Fig. 1. Story line showing the principle of least action sandwiched between relativity and quantum mechanics See A call to action

See:

The Periodic Table of the Moon's Strata

Time-Variable Gravity Measurements

Andrew Wiles and Fermat

LTool

A "freeway" through the solar system resembling a vast array of virtual winding tunnels and conduits around the Sun and planets, as envisioned by an engineer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif., can slash the amount of fuel needed for future space missions. Called the Interplanetary Superhighway, the system was conceived by Martin Lo, whose software was used to help design the flight path for NASA's Genesis mission, which is currently using this "freeway in space" on its mission to collect solar wind particles for return to Earth. Most missions are designed to take advantage of the way gravity pulls on a spacecraft when it swings by a body such as a planet or moon. Lo's concept takes advantage of another factor, the Sun's pull on the planets or a planet's pull on its nearby moons. Forces from many directions nearly cancel each other out, leaving paths through the gravity fields in which spacecraft can travel.

Boltzmann's Brain

There is a new article by Dennis Overbye in the New York Times called, Big Brain Theory: Have Cosmologists Lost Theirs?

It could be the weirdest and most embarrassing prediction in the history of cosmology, if not science.

If true, it would mean that you yourself reading this article are more likely to be some momentary fluctuation in a field of matter and energy out in space than a person with a real past born through billions of years of evolution in an orderly star-spangled cosmos. Your memories and the world you think you see around you are illusions.

Source: Sean Carroll, California Institute of Technology

Alway part of the process is to find within my own site information that I had collected to help me understand where Ludwig Boltzmann comes into the picture in the above article.

Now of course I go over to Cosmic Variance's version of Boltzmann's Universe where the article above is referred too.

I look at the discussion that is taking place and try and put the exchange and points raised in mind so that I can understand as best I can "the jest" of the problem and the jest of what people are saying.

This isn't an attempt to rewrite the article, but to open the door to a better understanding of what is being portrayed.

Sean:lylebot, this is basically the point of the post — if the universe is a fluctuation around thermal equilibrium, then no matter what you condition on concerning our present state (including literally everything we know about it), it is overwhelmingly likely that it is a random fluctuation from a higher-entropy past. Even if we have memories apparently to the contrary!

The Universe and Irreversibility

Now it is quite loosely put together in my head that I went searching to try and understand the context in which the universe was placed in accordance to the state of equilibrium.

In equilibrium, the entropy of the system cannot increase (because it is already at a maximum) and it cannot decrease (because that would violate the second law of thermodynamics). The only changes allowed are those in which the entropy remains constant.

See: What is the entropy of the universe?

HENRI POINCARE : Mathematics and Science-Last Essays

Jules Henri Poincare (1854-1912)

The scientist does not study nature because it is useful. He studies it because he delights in it, and he delights in it because it is beautiful.

HENRI POINCARE Mathematics and Science:Last Essays

Since we are assuming at this juncture the point of view of the mathematician, we must give to this concept all the precision that it requires, even if it becomes necessary to use mathematical language. We should then say that the body of laws is equivalent to a system of differential equations which link the speed of variations of the different elements of the universe to the present values of these elements.

Such a system involves, as we know, an infinite number of solutions, But if we take the initial values of all the elements, that is,their values at the instant t =(which would correspond in ordinary language to the "present"), the solution is completely determined, so that we can calculate the values of all the elements at any period
whatever, whether we suppose />0, which corresponds to the "future," or whether we suppose t<0, which corresponds to the "past." What is important to remember is that the manner of inferring the past from the present does not differ from that of inferring the future from the present.

Free for all: Dream Come True

As a lay person involved and very interested in the research that in going on in science, anything that speaks to the "openness of science" which will allow me to get information that is not third hand, is a wonderful thing for me.

Even among supportive publishers, there is a fear that the transition to open access could be rough, and might even put them out of business.

Yes indeed, it could change the landscape on magazines, or, it could involve a greater research department to science editing, that will bring a science editors work to a level the public can understand. This is a wonderful aspect of the openness of the internet that I have been after and have sought for a long time.

I have followed blogs who have held this virtue for the publics benefit in helping the public with this responsibility of awareness.

Illustration by Sandbox Studio

Forget about paying for journal subscriptions. If a new proposal takes hold, particle physics journals would get their funding from labs, libraries, and agencies that sponsor research, and readers could peruse them for free.

Sponsoring Consortium for Open Access Publishing in Particle Physics(SCOAP3)

The Open Access (OA) tenets of granting unrestricted access to the results of publicly-funded research are in contrast with current models of scientific publishing, where access is restricted to journal customers. At the same time, subscription costs increase and add considerable strain on libraries, forced to cancel an increasing number of journals subscriptions. This situation is particularly acute in fields like High-Energy Physics (HEP), where pre-prints describing scientific results are timely available online. There is a growing concern within the academic community that the future of high-quality journals, and the peer-review system they administer, is at risk.

To address this situation for HEP and, as an experiment, Science at large, a new model for OA publishing has emerged: SCOAP3 (Sponsoring Consortium for Open Access Publishing in Particle Physics). In this model, HEP funding agencies and libraries, which today purchase journal subscriptions to implicitly support the peer-review service, federate to explicitly cover its cost, while publishers make the electronic versions of their journals free to read. Authors are not directly charged to publish their articles OA.

SCOAP3 will, for the first time, link quality and price, stimulating competition and enabling considerable medium- and long-term savings. Today, most publishers quote a price in the range of 1’000–2’000 Euros per published article. On this basis, we estimate that the annual budget for the transition of HEP publishing to OA would amount to a maximum of 10 Million Euros/year, sensibly lower than the estimated global expenditure in subscription to HEP journals.

Each SCOAP3 partner will finance its contribution by canceling journal subscriptions. Each country will contribute according to its share of HEP publishing. The transition to OA will be facilitated by the fact that the large majority of HEP articles are published in just six peer-reviewed journals. Of course, the SCOAP3 model is open to any, present or future, high-quality HEP journal, aiming for a dynamic market with healthy competition and a broader choice.

HEP funding agencies and libraries are currently signing Expressions of Interest for the financial backing of the consortium. A tendering procedure will then take place. Provided that SCOAP3 funding partners are ready to engage in long-term commitments, many publishers are expected to be ready to enter into negotiations.

The example of SCOAP3 could be rapidly followed by other fields, directly related to HEP, such as nuclear physics or astro-particle physics, or similarly compact and organized with a reasonable number of journals.

Higgs Mass and Current Issues

For example, theory says that Higgs particles are matter particles, but in most respects the Higgs behaves more like a new force than like a particle. How can this be? In truth, the Higgs is neither matter nor force; the Higgs is just different.

A least-square fit to a number of precisely known data in electroweak physics using the Standard Model as theoretical framework and the Higgs mass as a free parameter yields an expectation value for the Higgs mass around the minimum of the parabola. [Source: Precision Electroweak Measurements and Constraints on the Standard Model by the LEP Collaborations and the LEP Electroweak Working Group, arXiv: 0712.0929v2, Figure 5.]

See Backreaction for explanation. The Higgs Mass

It is an exercise for me coming across different informations on the Higg's for a better understanding of the way things are to happen in reality. I hope to provide for extra links to help one understand the potential realizations that come across as I learn to understand this field better.

I appreciate the clarity given to the writing here that allows this deeper understanding of what is taking place by the different commentors, commenting to Back reactions blog post entry.

At 9:07 AM, January 05, 2008, Anonymous a quantum diaries survivor said...

Hi Stefan,

I wish to pay a tribute to your nice post here and answer the question you pose about the counter-intuitive trend of discovery reach at the LHC versus Higgs mass (for a given integrated luminosity), waiting for Michael's posts on the Higgs.

The problem is that as the Higgs mass changes, the mixture of possible final states it decays into changes dramatically. So, while at 160 GeV the Higgs is best sought in its decay to a pair of real W bosons (which weigh 80 GeV each), and in that case backgrounds are small because the signature is very distinctive, at 115 GeV the Higgs mostly decays to a pair of b-quark jets. Seeing a bump in the jet-jet mass distribution is utterly out of the question because in that case backgrounds are HUGE. So one has to rely on very rare decays such as H->gamma gamma - which still is plagued by large backgrounds.

The Higgs search is not one, but ten different analyses, depending on the unknown parameter M_h. Each analysis has its own problems. The higher the Higgs mass, the smaller the number of produced events; but as M_h changes, the signature varies from invisible to highly distinctive. Above 180 GeV, a Higgs can be seen with no trouble in the ZZ final state, when four muons are a gold-plated signature. It is not by chance that CMS was originally conceived as a compact muon solenoid: muons are all you need, at high mass, for the Higgs.

Cheers,
T.

You can find many more explanations here to help any layman in their understanding as T is always quite help in that direction. Also check out his label of "higgs search" at the top of his page.



See:

The Higg's Boson and Memory?

Alice and the Cosmic Ballet, Now Meet Higgins

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

In a nutshell, what Karim showed was that each time a memory is used, it has to be restored as a new memory in order to be accessible later. The old memory is either not there or is inaccessible. In short, your memory about something is only as good as your last memory about it. Joseph LeDoux

There are a couple of things that are bringing me to speak on "accessing the memories," and, "what people have changed they're minds about."

Plato:

This all has a purpose for me, in that what can be changed according to what our previous assessment was based upon “while remembering.” What it can do to help “readjust our views” based on what we first felt impressed upon us “in reflection?”

You get so many people who view a movie and in "real life?" What has made this movie a tangible bit of information that they would assume in their minds, that it is sufficient, or not, in regards to the basis of scientific procedure, to comment on whether it is just another "white coat scientist with glasses" who defines the scientist in incognito.

There would have to be a question of the reality of who is being defined as a scientist and some relationship and feelings "about the nerdy guy," and his stature as a scientist? Why do they feel this way?

But there is something vastly more important from the aspect of "this blog post entry" that has been part of my blog for some time. The issue about "memories."

Now before I get to the bottom of this posting, an inference to the basis of any thinking has some derivative to the expansionist valuation of more postings, then what can be said in a simple line? :) Ah, it never that easy to say something simple and then not show the examples being used to further the thoughts within one's own regime.

"Recollection of Dreams," while we try and remember yesterday?

I show the EDge site link and question for a purpose, and highlight a paragraph Sean Carroll listed in his blog entry called,"What Have You Changed Your Mind About?"

He paragraphs Joseph LeDoux.

Neuroscientist, New York University; Author, The Synaptic Self

Like many scientists in the field of memory, I used to think that a memory is something stored in the brain and then accessed when used. Then, in 2000, a researcher in my lab, Karim Nader, did an experiment that convinced me, and many others, that our usual way of thinking was wrong. In a nutshell, what Karim showed was that each time a memory is used, it has to be restored as a new memory in order to be accessible later. The old memory is either not there or is inaccessible. In short, your memory about something is only as good as your last memory about it. This is why people who witness crimes testify about what they read in the paper rather than what they witnessed. Research on this topic, called reconsolidation, has become the basis of a possible treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder, drug addiction, and any other disorder that is based on learning.

It is also important that I show the thought held while commenting on the movie script, so one gets the sense of where I am coming from.

Plato:

"If it was a consistent effort on your part how would it be any different then remembering what happened yesterday? Depends on “what you want to remember?”

I still find “the change” intriguing and how it would change “current thinking?”

So there you have it. I am using a "current situation" to help think about what is now changed in the mind of Joseph LeDoux. What has confronted by my own mind on how I had thought about memories. What and how they are accessed. This would incur some additional research throughout my site on what was first established, and how I came to believe what I do. That might be unimportant to a lot of you, so, bon voyage!

The Spotless Mind

Psychology professor Karim Nader is helping sufferers of post-traumatic stress disorder lessen debilitating symptoms—and in some cases, regain a normal life.Owen Egan See also: The Trauma Tamer

IC: Why is this research so important?

Karim Nader: There are a lot of implications. All psychopathological disorders, such as PTSD, epilepsy, obsessive compulsive disorders, or addiction—all these things have to do with your brain getting rewired in a way that is malfunctioning. Theoretically, we may be able to treat a lot of these psychopathologies. If you could block the re-storage of the circuit that causes the obsessive compulsion, then you might be able to reset a person to a level where they aren’t so obsessive. Or perhaps you can reset the circuit that has undergone epilepsy repeatedly so that you can increase the threshold for seizures. And there is some killer data showing that it’s possible to block the reconsolidation of drug cravings.

The other reason why I think it is so striking is that it is so contrary to what has been the accepted view of memory for so long in the mainstream. My research caused everybody in the field to stop, turn around and go, “Whoa, where’d that come from?” Nobody’s really working on this issue, and the only reason I came up with this is because I wasn’t trained in memory. [Nader was originally researching fear.] It really caused a fundamental reconceptualization of a very basic and dogmatic field in neuroscience, which is very exciting. It is the first time in 100 years that people are starting to come up with new models of memory at the physiological level.

Eternal Moonshine of the Simpson Mind



Homer now considers his life to be worthless and decides to commit suicide by jumping off a bridge. While falling, Homer's life flashes before his eyes, and he sees the full memory of the previous night.

What is Dark Energy?

I am recreating this post in accordance with other viewers who are currently looking at the subject of Dark Energy. Also some resources for further reading.

All events shown here (except KEK test detector) were generated by Monte-Carlo simulation program, written by Clark. The visualizing software which produced the detector images was written by Tomasz.

While the sun was easily recognizable building "monte carlo" patterns in computer technology developed from SNO work made such views easily discernible?

Imagine putting all that information through a single point? That "point" is important in terms of the energy perspective. It reveals something very interesting about our universe.

If such experiments as listed here are to be considered in the "forward perspective" then what do you think we have gained in our understanding of supersymmetry? Yes indeed, the undertanding is amazing with the reading of what is given to us below in the Interaction.org links.

The complexity of the information seems well, like, "ligo information" being transcribed into a working image of the cosmos? Complexity of all that information/energy is being processed through the LHC experiment. Consider it's energy values, and all that is being produced as "particle constituents" and yes, there is more.

Cosmic particle collision understanding in this correlation of experiment at LHC, we learn much about the universe.

Quantum physics has revealed a stunning truth about “nothing”: even the emptiest vacuum is filled with elementary particles, continually created and destroyed. Particles appear and disappear, flying apart and coming together, in an intricate quantum dance. This far-reaching consequence of quantum mechanics has withstood the most rigorous experimental scrutiny. In fact, these continual fluctuations are at the heart of our quantum understanding of nature.

The dance of quantum particles has special significance today because it contributes to the dark energy that is driving the universe apart. But there’s a problem: the vacuum has too much energy. A naive theoretical estimate gives an amount about 10¹²⁰ times too large to fit cosmological observations. The only known way to reduce the energy is to cancel contributions of different particle species against each other, possibly with a new symmetry called supersymmetry. With supersymmetry the result is 10⁶⁰ times better—a huge improvement, but not enough. Even with supersymmetry, what accounts for the other 60 orders of magnitude is still a mystery.

Physics theory predicts that one of the most important particles in the quantum vacuum is the Higgs particle. The Higgs pervades the vacuum, slowing the motion of particles, giving them mass, and preventing atoms from disintegrating. Since it fills the vacuum, the Higgs itself contributes to the embarrassing factor of 10¹²⁰.

The next accelerators are opening a window on the pivotal role of symmetry in fundamental physics. New discoveries will teach us about the role of the Higgs particle and supersymmetry in defining the vacuum. Such discoveries are key to understanding what tames the quantum vacuum, a topic that is fundamental to any real understanding of the mysterious dark energy that determines the destiny of our cosmos.

It took me a long time to get to the very point made in terms of the supersymmetrical valuation by understanding what existed "before" was transform from to being by presented another possibily on the other side.

"In fact, these continual fluctuations are at the heart of our quantum understanding of nature."

The only known way to reduce the energy is to cancel contributions of different particle species against each other, possibly with a new symmetry called supersymmetry.

It had to be taken down to a reductionistic point of view in order for this to make any sense. You needed experiments in which this was made possible. Without them, how could we be "lead by science?"

Conclusions

Particle physics is in the midst of a great revolution. Modern data and ideas have challenged long-held beliefs about matter, energy, space and time. Observations have confirmed that 95 percent of the universe is made of dark energy and dark matter unlike any we have seen or touched in our most advanced experiments. Theorists have found a way to reconcile gravity with quantum physics, but at the price of postulating extra dimensions beyond the familiar four dimensions of space and time. As the magnitude of the current revolution becomes apparent, the science of particle physics has a clear path forward. The new data and ideas have not only challenged the old ways of thinking, they have also pointed to the steps required to make progress. Many advances are within reach of our current program; others are close at hand. We are extraordinarily fortunate to live in a time when the great questions are yielding a whole new level of understanding. We should seize the moment and embrace the challenges.

A new LHC experiment is born, is an effect from what existed before? What come after.

Yes, the idea is that universe was not born from colliding particles, but from the supersymetical valuation that existed in the universe in the very beginning. You had to know, how to get there. That such events are still feasible, and are being produced cosmologically as we see evidenced in the "fast forward" experiment.

Dark Matter and Dark Energy: from the Universe to the Laboratory-Conclusion

Donut, W/hole in Space:The Structure of Consciousness and the Universe

The innermost and outermost psychological 'space' (which is here a metaphor for 'concentrated attention' and 'diffused attention') are recognized as indeed the same, continuous.

For explanations of these images see here

It is important to understand the way in which inner/outer have come together for me.

As a mathematical exercise viewing the most "basic consideration" while of thought, what does this equal too? Our assessment of the universe. A Mathematical framework?

I looked at people who use this thought and worked with it and found various comments enlightening when place with the observations being made aware of by John Fudjack here. Look at the previous post and see how they work with what has been demonstrated in this post.

By 'dilating' and 'expanding' the scope of our attention we not only discover that 'form is emptiness' (the donut has a hole), but also that 'emptiness is form' (objects precipitate out of the larger 'space') - to use Buddhist terminology. The emptiness that we arrive at by narrowing our focus on the innermost is identical to the emptiness that we arrive at by expanding our focus to the outermost. The 'infinitely large' is identical to the 'infinitesimally small'.The Structure of Consciousness John Fudjack - September, 1999

The Tree of Enlightenment?

“Since Buddha was enlightened under a bodhi tree, it has become a symbol of enlightenment,” said Mahajan. “The tree is more than religion, it is a symbol of peace, meditation, oneness with yourself, finding harmony with the world. Whenever there is chaos going on, people can use this to find themselves, and a oneness with themselves and the world we live in.”

If one was to see the "tree structure as circles that formed the branches" one would get the sense of what begins as a seed, arose from that one part and successfully leaves to itself, identified, as an evolutionary process of growth. The tree rings encapsulate a lot about the year of it's growth.

But that's not the tree I am talking about. I'm talking about another one mathematically.



Also see the following:

Hermetic Ties: Art to Esoteric Form

Raphael the Painter

Enlightenment of a Kind

Mathematical Enlightenment